Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:26:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf33c…488c weather 427 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$514 (+8%) realized +$77 · open +$437
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate57%243W / 180L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$276
7 days+$421
14 days+$218
30 days+$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$606
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +15.9% +4.8% 61% 61% -0.0%
≤30d 65 -52.5% -57.0% 23% 22% -5.3%
≤90d 358 -9.4% -18.1% 55% 43% -6.6%
all 423 -8.9% -17.6% 57% 42% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 42% -6.7%
10% -25.5% 28% -15.6%
15% -32.7% 18% -23.8%
20% -39.3% 13% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$1,237
Realized+$77
Unrealized+$437
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses243 / 180
Open positions4
Markets (closed)423 / 427
History coverage100d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 423 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 22? Yes 41¢ 100¢ $200 $493 +$293 (+146%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 23? Yes 59¢ 100¢ $200 $337 +$137 (+68%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 23? Yes 61¢ 64¢ $200 $212 +$12 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 22? Jun 22 $204 −$204 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? Jun 22 $206 −$206 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? Jun 22 $305 +$130 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Jun 22 $206 +$31 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 22? Jun 22 $222 −$28 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $307 −$307 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $308 −$308 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Jun 18 $204 +$159 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 18 $205 −$205 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $208 +$257 +124%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $205 +$213 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $204 +$184 +90%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $205 +$195 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $206 +$262 +128%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $205 −$205 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $205 +$175 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $204 +$138 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $201 +$138 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $154 −$154 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $153 −$153 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $153 +$116 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $102 +$58 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 1? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 7? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 7? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 7? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 17? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 7? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 22? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 30? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 4? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 15 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 25? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on May 15? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on April 17? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on May 10? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on April 23? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on April 27? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on May 2? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 22? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 22? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ap Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 21? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on May 22? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 18? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 22? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on April 22? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 7? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 7? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -88%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 5? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 23? BUY Yes 62¢ $178 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 23? BUY Yes 54¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? BUY Yes 63¢ $204 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? SELL Yes 50¢ $237 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 22? SELL Yes 40¢ $194 21h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 23? BUY Yes 59¢ $204 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 22? BUY Yes 48¢ $53 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 22? BUY Yes 46¢ $6 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 22? BUY Yes 46¢ $6 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 22? BUY Yes 46¢ $34 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 22? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 22? BUY Yes 44¢ $16 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 22? BUY Yes 40¢ $98 27h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 22? BUY Yes 41¢ $206 30h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 41¢ $206 33h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 22? BUY Yes 59¢ $204 41h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? BUY Yes 44¢ $206 43h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? BUY Yes 70¢ $203 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? BUY Yes 69¢ $68 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? BUY Yes 66¢ $33 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? BUY Yes 55¢ $307 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 45¢ $308 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $175 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 55¢ $204 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 48¢ $205 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 43¢ $206 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,237.11 · official $1,237.11 (match) · 1324 history records