Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:15:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf33a…1e9f other 217 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 157d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$449 (-0%) realized −$448 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate61%132W / 84L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$521per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Kalshi-fit4%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$248
7 days−$312
14 days−$272
30 days−$219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$136
sports 0% +$2
crypto 0% −$12
politics 0% $0
finance 0% +$3
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +22.5% +10.9% 33% 33% -16.3%
≤30d 14 +5.6% -4.4% 50% 43% -13.4%
≤90d 62 -16.4% -24.4% 42% 18% -11.7%
all 216 +1.3% -8.3% 61% 14% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 14% -9.6%
10% -17.1% 9% -18.3%
15% ← realistic here -25.1% 8% -26.2%
20% -32.5% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$542) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$28 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$448
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses132 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)216 / 217
History coverage158d ⚠
Avg bet$521
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit4%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 216 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 98¢ 95¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $27 +$38 +141%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,312 −$286 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1,574 −$44 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $994 −$8 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $68 +$32 +47%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $162 −$44 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $511 +$40 +8%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $78 +$11 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $2 −$2 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $6 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $338 +$45 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $6 +$3 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $89 −$11 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $11 +$3 +28%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $51 −$42 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $81 −$23 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $205 −$39 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 03 $282 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 02 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 02 $107 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 02 $16 −$6 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? May 01 $664 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 29 $48 −$11 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $50 −$31 -62%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 28 $502 −$85 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $18 +$2 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $566 +$203 +36%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $795 +$12 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $84 −$37 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $650 +$101 +16%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $88 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $32 −$26 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $103 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $527 −$9 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Apr 15 $450 −$118 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Apr 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Apr 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $211 −$25 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $451 −$55 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 13 $182 −$9 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 11 $300 −$12 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $65 15h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $27 16h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $267 37h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 48¢ $235 37h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $128 38h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $4 38h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $120 38h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $11 38h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $11 38h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $14 38h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $86 38h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $116 38h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $1 38h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $93 38h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $50 38h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $69 38h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $69 38h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $58 38h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $27 39h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $53 39h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $66 40h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $6 40h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $91 40h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $103 42h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $6 42h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $56 42h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $64 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $13 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.90 · official $38.12 (match) · 3500 history records