Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:50:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F3 0xf338…208c other 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL +$67 (+5%) realized +$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%24W / 36L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$398
7 days+$408
14 days+$334
30 days+$334
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$392
politics 40% −$98
sports 6% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +37.5% +24.4% 47% 38% +41.0%
≤30d 60 +24.1% +12.3% 40% 35% +12.1%
≤90d 60 +24.1% +12.3% 40% 35% +12.1%
all 60 +24.1% +12.3% 40% 35% +12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.3% 35% +12.1%
10% +1.5% 33% +1.4%
15% -8.3% 28% -8.4%
20% -17.3% 27% -17.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$8 · ×3.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses24 / 36
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 62
History coverage17d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $102 +$176 +172%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 23 $244 +$18 +7%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $28 +$13 +46%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $20 +$3 +16%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $102 +$103 +101%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $5 +$50 +982%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 +$41 +133%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $19 $0 +1%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 20 $14 +$9 +62%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 20 $13 +$1 +4%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 +$38 +312%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 +$2 +75%
Endrick: 1+ goals Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +32%
United States to win the second half? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $19 +$14 +73%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $15 +$11 +76%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $3 +$30 +982%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $4 +$15 +365%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $4 +$26 +712%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 +$4 +172%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -95%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 +$18 +344%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $277 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $102 1h
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $261 1h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 93¢ $244 2h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $41 2h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $23 4h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 86¢ $20 5h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 68¢ $28 5h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 9h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 28h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 42¢ $10 30h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $19 46h
Germany to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 2d
Germany to win the second half? BUY Yes 61¢ $14 2d
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $14 2d
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? BUY Yes 95¢ $13 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 42¢ $31 2d
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY 56¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY 24¢ $12 3d
United States to win the second half? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
United States to win the second half? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 3d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 3d
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $33 3d
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $19 3d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records