Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:18:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F3 0xf335…c904 other 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 604d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$97 (+0%) realized +$97 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate28%17W / 44L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$323per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 72% −$14
other 12% +$14
politics 10% −$5
tech 2% $0
sports 2% +$101
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +17.8% +6.6% 20% 20% -3.1%
≤30d 18 +4.9% -5.1% 17% 6% -8.9%
≤90d 51 +10.8% +0.3% 25% 18% -7.4%
all 61 +9.1% -1.3% 28% 15% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 15% -9.1%
10% -10.8% 15% -17.8%
15% -19.4% 15% -25.7%
20% -27.3% 13% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×6.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.54 per $1 lost it wins $2.54
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized+$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses17 / 44
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage604d
Avg bet$323
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $114 $114 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $22 $0 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $11 +$9 +90%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $34 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $24 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $337 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $27 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $48 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $64 $0 +0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $31 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $182 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $19 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $158 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 11 $158 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $12 +$16 +129%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $147 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $142 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $159 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 30 $156 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 25 $303 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $149 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 24 $317 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $151 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $144 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $158 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $146 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $159 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $147 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $156 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $160 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $153 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 13 $152 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $11 +$5 +50%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $11 +$8 +72%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $8 +$12 +146%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 06 $22 $0 +2%
Based FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 06 $44 $0 +0%
Devils vs. Rangers Apr 06 $26 +$28 +108%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Apr 02 $22 −$22 -100%
Stars vs. Penguins Mar 30 $36 +$31 +85%
Raptors vs. Clippers Mar 27 $41 +$25 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 31m
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $39 18h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $39 20h
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $114 2d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 4d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 7d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 52¢ $11 8d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 8d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $24 11d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 11d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 13d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 13d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $27 15d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 15d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 16d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 16d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $33 17d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 17d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 18d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 18d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $48 20d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $22 23d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $22 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $64 24d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $35 24d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $35 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.66 · official $113.66 (match) · 255 history records