Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:58:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf333…ba41 other 826 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d only
✗ bot/MM pace (125 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13,418 (-7%) realized −$13,081 · open −$337
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%37W / 775L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day125.2pace
Fees−$568est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$149
7 days−$3,779
14 days−$6,297
30 days−$11,133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$2,093
other 21% −$3,844
politics 13% −$1,347
sports 11% −$1,244
finance 10% −$1,352
tech 9% −$1,218
crypto 3% −$173
culture 1% −$100
economics 1% −$42
weather 1% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (125 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 183 -11.9% -20.3% 2% 1% -15.8%
≤30d 812 -10.4% -19.0% 5% 0% -14.6%
≤90d 812 -10.4% -19.0% 5% 0% -14.6%
all 812 -10.4% -19.0% 5% 0% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover125.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 0% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 0% -22.8%
15% -33.8% 0% -30.2%
20% -40.3% 0% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 58% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$14 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized−$13,081
Unrealized−$337
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses37 / 775
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$568
Open positions14
Markets (closed)812 / 826
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$244
Trades / day125.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 812 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Yes 41¢ 20¢ $82 $41 −$41 (-50%)
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1.5% and 2%? Yes 26¢ 13¢ $52 $25 −$27 (-52%)
Will Hyperbeat launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 87¢ 44¢ $35 $18 −$17 (-49%)
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 89¢ 58¢ $25 $16 −$9 (-35%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $172 in June? Yes 71¢ 28¢ $36 $14 −$22 (-61%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 95¢ 7¢ $190 $14 −$176 (-93%)
Will StandX launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 43¢ 28¢ $21 $14 −$7 (-35%)
Will Smith & Wesson (SWBI) beat quarterly earnings? No 38¢ 27¢ $19 $13 −$5 (-29%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? No 67¢ 48¢ $18 $13 −$5 (-29%)
Will John Williams advance from the AK-AL primary election? No 45¢ 34¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-23%)
Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 91¢ 60¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-34%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in June? Yes 49¢ 5¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-90%)
Will Safepoint's market cap be between $900M and $1.1B at market close on IPO day? Yes 48¢ 2¢ $15 $1 −$15 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 16 $176 −$2 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? Jun 16 $21 $0 -1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 16 $45 −$1 -3%
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $6B in 2026? Jun 16 $21 −$6 -26%
Will GamerLegion make a roster change before August? Jun 16 $51 −$6 -12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $2 $0 -3%
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 16 $110 −$7 -7%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 16 $139 −$16 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Jun 16 $7 $0 -2%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 16 $63 −$13 -21%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 16 $101 −$3 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? Jun 16 $7 $0 -6%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 16 $18 −$13 -71%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 16 $66 −$2 -2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 16 $172 −$1 -1%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $150 −$4 -3%
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Jun 16 $45 −$7 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 16 $5 $0 -6%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $22 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 16 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? Jun 16 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 16 $0 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -36%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $599 −$33 -5%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $63 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? Jun 16 $21 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 16 $47 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $4 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $8 $0 -3%
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor Jun 16 $40 −$7 -18%
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Jun 16 $8 −$3 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Jun 16 $0 $0 -4%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 16 $35 −$4 -11%
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $8B in 2026? Jun 16 $3 $0 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $30 −$4 -13%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the England vs Croatia FI Jun 16 $22 −$1 -4%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 16 $44 −$7 -16%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $3 $0 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $38 −$1 -3%
Will Ferdinando Federico win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election? Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 6? Jun 11 $21 −$14 -68%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 11 $37 −$31 -83%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $146 −$90 -61%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $193 −$193 -100%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $294 −$86 -29%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $270 −$270 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 87¢ $174 31m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 88¢ $176 31m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? SELL Yes 36¢ $21 49m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $21 50m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL No 64¢ $44 57m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 65¢ $45 58m
Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $5 1h
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $6B in 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $8 1h
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $6B in 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $8 1h
Will GamerLegion make a roster change before August? SELL No 74¢ $28 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 1h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL No 53¢ $103 1h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 55¢ $110 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 42¢ $39 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 64¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 64¢ $7 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 26¢ $11 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 26¢ $19 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 45¢ $31 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 46¢ $14 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 47¢ $3 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 49¢ $98 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $98 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $50 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.26 · official $184.28 (match) · 3500 history records