Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:39:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F3 0xf333…038c sports 1243 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,945 (-7%) realized −$4,950 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate60%748W / 494L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day35.3pace
Fees−$365est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 91d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$1,954
other 14% −$343
crypto 0% +$3
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +7.5% -2.7% 59% 53% -10.7%
≤30d 41 +5.3% -4.7% 61% 51% -7.2%
≤90d 1215 -5.0% -14.1% 60% 47% -12.6%
all 1242 -4.7% -13.8% 60% 47% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 47% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 31% -20.8%
15% -29.6% 21% -28.5%
20% -36.5% 11% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$23 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$285
Realized−$4,950
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses748 / 494
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$365
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1242 / 1243
History coverage91d ⚠
Avg bet$57
Trades / day35.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Ben Shelton 79¢ 80¢ $280 $285 +$5 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $278 +$3 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $180 +$98 +54%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $156 +$24 +15%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $130 +$26 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $179 −$50 -28%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $141 +$38 +27%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $117 +$25 +21%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $79 +$38 +48%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $46 +$33 +73%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $57 −$12 -20%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $161 −$103 -64%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Yuliana Lizarazo Jun 15 $137 +$24 +17%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $552 −$169 -31%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $246 +$56 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $302 −$52 -17%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $239 +$62 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $255 −$16 -6%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $101 +$49 +48%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 −$35 -71%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $199 −$8 -4%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $218 +$31 +14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $99 +$5 +5%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $64 +$50 +79%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $67 −$4 -5%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $45 +$22 +48%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $118 +$27 +23%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $123 −$5 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $166 −$43 -26%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $148 +$19 +13%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $122 +$26 +21%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $83 +$39 +48%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $85 −$2 -2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $278 −$193 -70%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $356 −$78 -22%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Jun 08 $356 +$74 +21%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $889 +$39 +4%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $848 +$41 +5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $700 +$148 +21%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $12 −$12 -99%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 −$8 -40%
Will Ethiopia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $13 +$7 +52%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 - Map 2 Winner May 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 - Map 1 Winner May 10 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Albirex Niigata win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 −$9 -86%
Will Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Diego FC end in a draw? May 10 $8 +$3 +38%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $15 −$8 -51%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $16 $0 -1%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $123 −$95 -77%
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims) May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 10 $56 +$14 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Ben Shelton 79¢ $282 1h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 79¢ $282 1h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 77¢ $278 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $278 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $180 10h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 93¢ $180 10h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 80¢ $156 11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $156 11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $130 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 49¢ $130 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $179 17h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Jiri Lehecka 86¢ $179 17h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 67¢ $141 18h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniil Medvedev 100¢ $141 18h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 82¢ $117 20h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Brandon Nakashima 67¢ $79 26h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 57¢ $46 35h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 49¢ $46 35h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 60¢ $57 36h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 25¢ $57 36h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $161 40h
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Yuliana Lizarazo SELL Sarah Rakotomanga 99¢ $161 40h
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Yuliana Lizarazo BUY Sarah Rakotomanga 84¢ $137 41h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 39¢ $137 41h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 84¢ $302 43h
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 81¢ $246 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 91¢ $246 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $250 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 67¢ $250 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $302 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $285.10 · official $285.10 (match) · 3500 history records