Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:21:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F3 0xf332…3c89 sports 1402 markets active 2h ago coverage 229d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 229d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,972 (+1%) realized +$3,006 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%628W / 766L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$880est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$254now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 229d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$1,400
other 11% +$1,842
tech 0% −$550
crypto 0% −$508
world 0% +$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +43.5% +29.8% 48% 48% +13.6%
≤30d 165 +9.4% -1.0% 41% 41% -4.4%
≤90d 340 -0.8% -10.2% 42% 41% -9.5%
all 1394 +1.5% -8.1% 45% 45% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 45% -9.7%
10% -16.9% 45% -18.3%
15% -25.0% 44% -26.2%
20% -32.3% 44% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +7% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$227 vs −$187 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$254
Realized+$3,006
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses628 / 766
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$880
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1394 / 1402
History coverage229d ⚠
Avg bet$204
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1394 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 50¢ 64¢ $200 $254 +$54 (+27%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $314 +$203 +65%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $102 +$398 +388%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $102 +$168 +165%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $51 +$510 +994%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $203 −$200 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $305 −$300 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $407 +$551 +136%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $203 −$200 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $244 −$240 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $478 −$470 -98%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $313 +$488 +156%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $304 +$284 +93%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $203 −$152 -75%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $203 +$207 +102%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $203 +$241 +119%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $497 +$503 +101%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $304 −$300 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $480 +$720 +150%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$34 -34%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $437 −$430 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $203 −$200 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $123 −$120 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win Jun 17 $102 +$448 +437%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$98 +97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$131 +129%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $51 +$365 +712%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$65 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 +$161 +158%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$65 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $230 +$270 +117%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $203 +$262 +129%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$142 +140%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$80 +79%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $560 +$440 +79%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $447 −$440 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $117 −$116 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $203 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $203 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 9¢ $51 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $102 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $102 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $314 5h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 44¢ $305 6h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 7h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 7h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 45¢ $203 9h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 39¢ $204 9h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $203 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $478 18h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $244 18h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi BUY 11¢ $103 27h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 39¢ $250 31h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 39¢ $1 31h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 39¢ $6 31h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 39¢ $1 31h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 39¢ $1 31h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 39¢ $6 31h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 39¢ $4 31h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 39¢ $2 31h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 39¢ $5 31h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 39¢ $38 31h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 41¢ $204 32h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 13¢ $51 43h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $304 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $254.42 · official $254.42 (match) · 3500 history records