Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:06:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf331…2489 sports 329 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$34 (+1%) realized +$48 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%154W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$40
14 days−$1,759
30 days−$1,080
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$168
other 13% −$187
world 0% −$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -9.8% -18.4% 48% 48% -2.9%
≤30d 208 -56.7% -60.8% 21% 21% -33.4%
≤90d 263 -23.4% -30.7% 37% 37% -17.7%
all 322 +0.7% -8.9% 48% 47% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 47% -9.7%
10% -17.6% 47% -18.3%
15% -25.6% 46% -26.2%
20% -32.9% 42% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +78% → late -77% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$14 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$48
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses154 / 168
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions1
Markets (closed)322 / 329
History coverage127d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 322 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 24¢ $25 $11 −$14 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $55 +$21 +38%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $25 −$25 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$18 +180%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $14 −$14 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $16 +$12 +76%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $31 +$43 +139%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $27 −$27 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $19 +$17 +89%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $46 +$32 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$17 +57%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $27 −$27 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $16 +$11 +70%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $76 +$58 +76%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 +$25 +97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -99%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $27 −$27 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 +$24 +93%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$58 -58%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $15 +$22 +146%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 −$1 -7%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $152 +$86 +57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$36 -71%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 +$14 +89%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$9 -19%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $91 −$90 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$23 +46%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 −$3 -16%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $50 +$21 +41%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $22 −$22 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$23 +114%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs NRG (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NRG (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Metz win on 2026-04-05? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $25 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $55 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 54¢ $25 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 22h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $10 47h
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $14 47h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $25 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $18 2d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $16 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 50¢ $25 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $73 3d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $31 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $27 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $36 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $19 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $46 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 5d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 58¢ $20 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $27 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 58¢ $16 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $134 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $16 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $76 6d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $25 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $35 7d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $25 7d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $27 7d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 8d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw BUY 10¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.34 · official $11.34 (match) · 643 history records