Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:30:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F3 0xf32f…ef80 sports 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$199 (+6%) realized +$215 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1,324now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$475
other 28% +$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -6.3% -15.2% 62% 62% +14.6%
≤30d 8 -6.3% -15.2% 62% 62% +14.6%
≤90d 8 -6.3% -15.2% 62% 62% +14.6%
all 8 -6.3% -15.2% 62% 62% +14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 62% +14.6%
10% -23.3% 62% +3.6%
15% -30.7% 38% -6.4%
20% -37.5% 12% -15.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +27% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$159 vs −$67 · ×2.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.97 per $1 lost it wins $3.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,324
Realized+$215
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions5
Markets (closed)8 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $550 $556 +$6 (+1%)
Croatia to score first vs. Panama? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $500 $489 −$11 (-2%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 64¢ $90 $95 +$5 (+6%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $101 −$86 -85%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $1,262 +$519 +41%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $82 −$69 -84%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $31 +$20 +66%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $202 +$92 +46%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $403 +$127 +32%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $46 −$45 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 10¢ $15 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 97¢ $1,781 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $13 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 50¢ $51 2h
Croatia to score first vs. Panama? BUY Yes 70¢ $504 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $1,010 6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $252 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 8h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 9h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 9h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $82 14h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $91 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 26h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $201 30h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $101 30h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 33h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $46 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 33h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $201 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,324.04 · official $1,324.04 (match) · 23 history records