Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:31:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F3
0xf32c…cc9a
weather · 260 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$257 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$292 · open +$36
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$73
Realized−$292
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses68 / 190
Open positions2
Markets (closed)258 / 260
Avg bet$26
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 2 History 258 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$45
14 days−$21
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Yes 21¢ 100¢ $15 $73 +$58 (+385%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 13? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 7? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 24? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 20? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 10? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on May 3? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on May 30? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 27? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on May 29? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 18? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 10? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on May 22? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 6? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 29? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 8? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 18? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 29? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 2? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on May 22? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 24? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 6? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 6? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 14? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 −$21 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$13 +401%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $26 +$54 +208%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$4 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $21 +$40 +196%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $11 −$11 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $38 −$11 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $17 −$12 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $45 −$21 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $40 +$61 +153%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 5? Jun 05 $53 −$45 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $4 −$3 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $5 +$35 +707%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 03 $89 −$12 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 31? May 31 $21 +$22 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 31? May 31 $10 −$7 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or below on May 31? May 31 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 30? May 30 $36 +$52 +145%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on May 30? May 30 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 30? May 30 $47 −$46 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 30? May 30 $10 −$8 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or below on May 30? May 30 $3 −$2 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 29? May 29 $54 +$64 +118%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 29? May 29 $35 −$20 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 29? May 29 $51 −$20 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 29? May 28 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on May 29? May 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 29? May 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 28? May 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 28? May 28 $32 −$32 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 28? May 28 $41 +$51 +125%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 28? May 28 $5 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 27? May 27 $33 +$25 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 27? May 27 $59 −$51 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 27? May 27 $10 −$10 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 27? May 26 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 24? May 24 $21 +$73 +349%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 74% +$15
sports 7% −$101
other 6% −$23
world 5% −$19
politics 3% −$31
culture 3% −$66
tech 2% −$36
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 54¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? SELL Yes 94¢ $14 18h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 24h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 25h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 28h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 28h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 28h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 11? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 29h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -26.4% -33.4% 16% 16% -25.9%
≤30d 69 -13.3% -21.5% 23% 23% -5.1%
≤90d 221 +5.2% -4.8% 25% 24% -10.6%
all 258 +1.5% -8.2% 26% 26% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 26% -12.8%
10% -17.0% 24% -21.2%
15% -25.0% 21% -28.8%
20% -32.3% 19% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.76 · official $72.76 (match) · 963 history records