Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:12:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F3
0xf32b…1bd1
other · 46 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$16 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$16 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses11 / 34
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage616d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 1 History 45 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 27 $46 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $56 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $36 $0 -0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $44 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $42 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 06 $46 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 30 $44 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 27 $42 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 18 $44 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Apr 11 $20 $0 -2%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $7 +$5 +72%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $10 +$5 +46%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 08 $12 +$6 +48%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $5 +$6 +108%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 26? Mar 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $40 $0 +1%
Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Feb 27 $38 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $38 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 01 $29 −$1 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $36 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $245 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $1,670 −$3 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 27 $805 −$2 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 27 $1,179 −$8 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 79% −$15
other 12% −$1
sports 4% −$1
economics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 7d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $7 8d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $7 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 18d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 19d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 32¢ $4 24d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 25d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 26d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $36 27d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $36 27d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 32d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 33d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $42 34d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $42 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 13 -7.8% -16.5% 15% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 34 -0.9% -10.3% 24% 12% -9.7%
all 45 -0.7% -10.2% 24% 9% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 9% -9.8%
10% -18.7% 9% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 9% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.15 · official $6.15 (match) · 309 history records