Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:16:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf32b…0c42 other 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-0%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$9
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$34
politics 20% −$7
economics 5% −$2
sports 3% −$5
world 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
finance 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.8% -24.7% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 18 -5.6% -14.6% 6% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 106 -2.7% -12.0% 9% 6% -9.7%
all 113 -2.6% -11.9% 9% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 5% -9.7%
10% -20.3% 5% -18.3%
15% -28.0% 5% -26.2%
20% -35.1% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$256
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)113 / 115
History coverage96d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $174 $174 +$0 (+0%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $82 $82 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $42 $0 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $37 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $100 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $43 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $58 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $37 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 03 $154 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 01 $122 +$1 +1%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $43 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 24 $47 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $289 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $1,693 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $568 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $279 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $272 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 13 $275 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $888 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $288 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $862 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $290 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $269 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $302 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $828 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $559 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $280 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 30 $289 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $287 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $279 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $294 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $755 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $300 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $290 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 15 $300 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? Apr 15 $282 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 2h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $82 3d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $55 3d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $55 3d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 59¢ $7 4d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $48 5d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 5d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $61 5d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $61 6d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $58 6d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $58 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $174 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $37 9d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 9d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 10d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 10d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 11d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 11d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 12d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 12d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 13d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 14d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 16d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 16d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $37 18d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $37 18d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $64 18d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $64 19d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $45 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $255.88 · official $255.88 (match) · 349 history records