Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:40:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F3 0xf325…2dba other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$209 (+3%) realized +$346 · open −$137
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%20W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days+$312
14 days+$312
30 days+$312
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$139
sports 31% +$103
crypto 8% −$234
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +3.1% -6.8% 53% 53% +7.1%
≤30d 15 +3.1% -6.8% 53% 53% +7.1%
≤90d 15 +3.1% -6.8% 53% 53% +7.1%
all 38 -9.8% -18.4% 53% 50% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 50% -7.8%
10% -26.2% 47% -16.6%
15% -33.3% 39% -24.7%
20% -39.8% 26% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$99 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$346
Unrealized−$137
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses20 / 18
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage223d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 18¢ $97 $36 −$61 (-63%)
Türkiye leading at halftime? Yes 36¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $202 +$80 +40%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $85 −$84 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $85 −$84 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $156 +$164 +105%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 19 $23 −$22 -98%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 18 $101 +$77 +76%
Czechia to win the second half? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Colombia to win the second half? Jun 18 $73 −$66 -91%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $128 +$97 +76%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $127 +$101 +79%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $119 −$119 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $62 +$27 +43%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $306 +$123 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $199 +$108 +54%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Nov 24 $1,926 −$482 -25%
Avalanche vs. Blackhawks Nov 24 $46 +$27 +60%
Flames vs. Canucks Nov 24 $90 −$38 -42%
Bruins vs. Sharks Nov 24 $49 −$31 -63%
Spurs vs. Suns Nov 24 $150 −$150 -100%
Hornets vs. Hawks Nov 24 $100 +$39 +39%
Jaguars vs. Cardinals Nov 24 $150 +$67 +45%
Falcons vs. Saints Nov 24 $169 +$60 +35%
Eagles vs. Cowboys Nov 23 $300 −$300 -100%
Colts vs. Chiefs Nov 23 $40 +$21 +51%
Patriots vs. Bengals Nov 23 $389 +$119 +31%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on November 23? Nov 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on November 23? Nov 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in November? Nov 23 $323 +$34 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on November 23? Nov 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $53 −$50 -95%
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $632 +$137 +22%
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $670 +$318 +47%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on November 21? Nov 21 $89 −$88 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on November 21? Nov 21 $80 −$40 -50%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $137 +$107 +78%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $222 +$78 +35%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $270 +$145 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $99 2h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $77 2h
Brazil leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $281 2h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 5h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $85 14h
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $85 14h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $320 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $75 28h
Korea Republic leading at halftime? BUY Yes 21¢ $23 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $81 28h
Canada leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $178 29h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 36h
Czechia to win the second half? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 36h
Colombia to win the second half? SELL Yes $7 2d
Colombia to win the second half? BUY Yes 64¢ $73 2d
Colombia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $225 2d
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $128 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 55¢ $127 2d
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 67¢ $119 2d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $39 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers $10 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers 24¢ $85 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 14¢ $51 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $104 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $307 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $199 3d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? SELL Yes 37¢ $520 207d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 65¢ $925 207d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.24 · official $36.24 (match) · 101 history records