Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:51:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F3 0xf324…45fa crypto 1028 markets active 0h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,340 (-24%) realized −$1,367 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%259W / 746L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days+$46
14 days+$40
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,252
economics 1% −$30
other 0% $0
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +119.8% +98.9% 47% 27% +105.4%
≤30d 55 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 9% -45.2%
≤90d 431 -26.2% -33.2% 26% 25% -50.8%
all 1005 -12.4% -20.8% 26% 24% -43.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 24% -43.0%
10% -28.3% 23% -48.5%
15% -35.3% 22% -53.4%
20% -41.6% 21% -58.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$1,367
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses259 / 746
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1005 / 1028
History coverage212d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1005 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Yes 5¢ 14¢ $14 $37 +$24 (+174%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $6 $12 +$6 (+92%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 17? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+73%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+49%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-31%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 17? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+69%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 491 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$56 +1656%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$9 +882%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +22%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 8? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 7? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? Jun 05 $2 +$41 +2333%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 5? Jun 05 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $3 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 5? Jun 04 $7 −$5 -78%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 4? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $3 −$2 -94%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 3? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? Jun 01 $8 −$7 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1? May 30 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 31? May 30 $17 −$16 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 30? May 29 $10 −$9 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 29? May 28 $8 −$8 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 29? May 28 $7 −$6 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 23? May 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 23? May 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 22? May 21 $6 −$6 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 22? May 21 $6 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 21? May 20 $15 −$14 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21? May 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 20? May 20 $19 −$18 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 36m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 50m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $13 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? SELL Yes 80¢ $12 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? SELL Yes 80¢ $8 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? SELL Yes 71¢ $17 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? SELL Yes 71¢ $10 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? SELL Yes 42¢ $8 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 82¢ $6 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 67¢ $5 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? SELL No 100¢ $3 13h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY No 81¢ $3 14h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? SELL No 99¢ $3 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.77 · official $55.77 (match) · 3356 history records