Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:03:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf31d…190d crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$355 (+12%) realized −$4 · open +$359
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$238
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-38.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -32.1% -38.6% 40% 40% -14.6%
≤30d 10 -32.1% -38.6% 40% 40% -14.6%
≤90d 10 -32.1% -38.6% 40% 40% -14.6%
all 10 -32.1% -38.6% 40% 40% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.6% 40% -14.6%
10% -44.5% 40% -22.7%
15% -49.8% 30% -30.2%
20% -54.8% 30% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$189 vs −$146 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,132
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$359
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Up 37¢ 50¢ $400 $539 +$139 (+35%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Up 46¢ 50¢ $333 $368 +$35 (+11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Up 9¢ 50¢ $40 $224 +$184 (+461%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $583 +$176 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $347 −$322 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $232 −$222 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $214 +$254 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $265 +$169 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 22 $236 +$156 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $236 −$222 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 22 $109 −$100 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,131.82 · official $1,131.82 (match) · 18 history records