Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F3 0xf31a…bfba crypto 406 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 129d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,217 (-1%) realized −$1,901 · open +$684
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%118W / 286L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Fees−$92est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,922now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 130d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$4,564
other 15% −$6,199
world 8% −$1,719
finance 7% +$864
sports 4% +$833
economics 1% −$555
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 -21.2% -28.7% 14% 14% -35.5%
≤30d 112 -21.1% -28.6% 15% 15% -36.6%
≤90d 200 -39.6% -45.4% 14% 14% -37.3%
all 404 -19.7% -27.3% 29% 28% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.3% 28% -22.6%
10% ← realistic here -34.3% 25% -30.0%
15% -40.6% 25% -36.7%
20% -46.5% 23% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$242 vs −$142 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$1,922
Realized−$1,901
Unrealized+$684
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses118 / 286
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions2
Markets (closed)404 / 406
History coverage130d ⚠
Avg bet$206
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 404 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,020 $1,410 +$390 (+38%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 36¢ 84¢ $218 $512 +$294 (+135%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 108 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $240 −$18 -7%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $165 −$23 -14%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $103 −$10 -10%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $103 −$30 -30%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $464 −$456 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $613 −$69 -11%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $79 −$77 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $63 −$61 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $72 −$9 -12%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $113 −$110 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $53 +$159 +298%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $69 −$68 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $44 −$42 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $774 −$760 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $836 −$820 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $139 −$136 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $85 −$85 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $369 −$360 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $11 −$10 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $408 +$692 +170%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $326 −$319 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $308 −$300 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $20 −$19 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $7 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $77 −$75 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $54 −$52 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $41 +$297 +732%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $236 +$699 +296%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $201 −$116 -58%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $174 −$128 -74%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 15 $70 −$68 -97%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $495 −$38 -8%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $171 −$29 -17%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $119 −$116 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $404 −$394 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $223 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 29¢ $223 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $141 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 33¢ $141 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 37¢ $165 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? SELL Yes 14¢ $66 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 8¢ $72 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? SELL Yes 15¢ $26 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $99 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $464 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $465 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $79 9h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $79 9h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $63 9h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 12¢ $63 9h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $72 13h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $613 13h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 18h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 19h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 48¢ $213 19h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 19h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 18¢ $28 19h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 19h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 17¢ $44 20h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 20h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 12¢ $37 20h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $16 20h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,922.49 · official $1,898.23 · 3500 history records