Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:00:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F3 0xf31a…03fd sports 212 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$290 (+9%) realized +$287 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%112W / 83L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$1
14 days−$82
30 days+$216
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$234
economics 3% −$2
world 3% −$10
crypto 2% +$31
other 2% +$20
tech 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +6.9% -3.3% 73% 45% -10.1%
≤30d 79 +27.3% +15.2% 63% 58% +7.4%
≤90d 169 +14.5% +3.6% 57% 53% -1.2%
all 195 +12.5% +1.7% 57% 53% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.7% 53% -0.8%
10% -8.0% 52% -10.3%
15% -16.9% 47% -18.9%
20% -25.0% 43% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$15 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$268
Realized+$287
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses112 / 83
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions17
Markets (closed)195 / 212
History coverage111d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 35¢ 72¢ $20 $41 +$21 (+104%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 61¢ 99¢ $20 $33 +$13 (+63%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 92¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. Samsung Lions LG Twins 55¢ 53¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. SSG Landers Samsung Lions 61¢ 50¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 25¢ 12¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-28%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes $3 $1 −$2 (-77%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Yes $9 $0 −$9 (-96%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 42¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 80 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +29%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +62%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 10 $10 +$8 +79%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $30 +$26 +86%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $30 +$35 +114%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $9 −$9 -98%
Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs. Calgary Stampeders Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
AHL: Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins vs. Toronto Marlies Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 05 $30 −$30 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 05 $8 +$2 +22%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 05 $10 $0 +2%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 05 $20 +$26 +129%
Roland Garros WTA: Claire Liu vs Moyuka Uchijima May 30 $10 +$7 +67%
ITF Kayseri: Berrak Kocak vs Doga Turkmen May 30 $10 +$7 +73%
Roland Garros ATP: Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi May 30 $10 +$7 +73%
ITF Troisdorf: Nino Ehrenschneider vs Nikolai Barsukov May 30 $10 +$9 +86%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 30 $10 +$10 +101%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 30 $10 +$12 +114%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 30 $10 +$12 +114%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears May 30 $20 +$14 +69%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 30 $20 +$15 +73%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Kiwoom Heroes May 30 $20 +$16 +81%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
ITF Kayseri: Marie Villet vs Ada Kumru May 26 $10 −$10 -99%
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Aleksandra Khomitskaya vs Anna Sedysheva May 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 26 $41 −$40 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $41 −$40 -98%
Kosice: Mathys Erhard vs Ivan Ivanov May 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants May 26 $10 +$9 +93%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 26 $10 +$10 +97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 26 $10 +$10 +101%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins May 26 $10 +$12 +114%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 26 $10 +$13 +129%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 26 $10 +$14 +134%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 26 $10 +$14 +134%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 26 $10 +$14 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $20 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $4 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $20 5d
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 51¢ $10 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $20 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $10 5d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Chicago White Sox 37¢ $9 9d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $10 9d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $10 9d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 91¢ $20 9d
Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs. Calgary Stampeders BUY Calgary Stampeders 47¢ $10 9d
AHL: Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins vs. Toronto Marlies BUY Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins 54¢ $10 9d
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Dallas Wings 55¢ $10 9d
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 57¢ $10 9d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $30 9d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $30 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 48¢ $30 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $30 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $40 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268.38 · official $268.26 (match) · 376 history records