Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:21:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F3
0xf317…ffcb
crypto · 10 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$4 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$38 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage4d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 1 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$38
14 days−$38
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$19 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $9 +$3 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 60% −$42
tech 36% +$1
other 5% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 2h
Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $12 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 76¢ $9 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 97¢ $60 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -7.3% -16.1% 67% 33% -28.1%
≤30d 9 -7.3% -16.1% 67% 33% -28.1%
≤90d 9 -7.3% -16.1% 67% 33% -28.1%
all 9 -7.3% -16.1% 67% 33% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 33% -28.1%
10% -24.1% 22% -35.0%
15% -31.5% 11% -41.2%
20% -38.2% 11% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.53 · official $11.53 (match) · 17 history records