Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F3 0xf316…c97f crypto 240 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$602 (-6%) realized −$602 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate59%141W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days−$330
14 days−$364
30 days−$747
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$505
other 28% −$110
world 5% $0
sports 2% −$128
economics 1% −$1
tech 1% +$1
politics 1% $0
weather 1% −$16
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -5.8% -14.8% 64% 40% -19.5%
≤30d 167 -5.0% -14.0% 57% 37% -16.9%
≤90d 238 -4.5% -13.6% 59% 35% -15.2%
all 238 -4.5% -13.6% 59% 35% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 35% -15.2%
10% -21.9% 27% -23.3%
15% -29.4% 22% -30.7%
20% -36.3% 17% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$23 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized−$602
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses141 / 97
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)238 / 240
History coverage76d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 97¢ 97¢ $74 $74 −$0 (-0%)
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? SpaceX 98¢ 97¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 17 $44 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$6 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$15 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$6 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $65 −$4 -7%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 17 $68 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$32 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$40 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$8 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$10 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $246 −$38 -16%
EU dissolves before 2027? Jun 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $136 −$35 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? BUY No 97¢ $74 1h
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? BUY SpaceX 98¢ $60 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $19 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $17 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 5h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $61 6h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $44 12h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $65 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.25 · official $133.25 (match) · 748 history records