Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:28:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf312…b94d crypto 602 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 111d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,111 (-3%) realized −$1,086 · open −$25
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate72%430W / 169L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day28.4pace
Fees−$98est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$808now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$296
7 days+$176
14 days+$81
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$638
sports 9% +$153
other 2% −$125
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +6.8% -3.4% 48% 45% -5.5%
≤30d 44 -6.6% -15.5% 45% 43% -9.2%
≤90d 268 -6.7% -15.6% 65% 41% -10.7%
all 599 -2.9% -12.1% 72% 44% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 44% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 23% -19.3%
15% -28.2% 17% -27.1%
20% -35.2% 12% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$49 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$808
Realized−$1,086
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses430 / 169
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions3
Markets (closed)599 / 602
History coverage112d ⚠
Avg bet$73
Trades / day28.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 599 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Uruguay 22¢ 20¢ $283 $264 −$19 (-7%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $78 +$194 +250%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $98 +$225 +230%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $920 −$495 -54%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $71 +$46 +65%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $309 +$50 +16%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $204 +$38 +18%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 21 $305 −$20 -7%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $307 +$207 +68%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $152 −$136 -89%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $103 +$169 +165%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $375 +$146 +39%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $146 −$99 -68%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $418 +$102 +24%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $57 −$56 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $76 −$75 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $23 −$22 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $34 −$11 -33%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $6 −$5 -98%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $23 −$23 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $94 −$58 -62%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$44 +206%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $17 $0 +1%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$20 +186%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $13 +$7 +59%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $11 +$11 +101%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $20 +$21 +101%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$13 -84%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET Jun 10 $74 −$72 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $63 +$13 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 29 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 29 $15 +$7 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11AM ET May 27 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 27 $14 +$12 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 25 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 25 $35 +$10 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 22 $18 −$18 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8PM ET May 14 $102 +$49 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 14 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET May 14 $78 +$56 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET May 13 $103 −$13 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET May 13 $52 −$50 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 22¢ $290 29m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $504 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 62¢ $324 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 18¢ $92 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 18¢ $6 2h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $78 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 23¢ $425 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $920 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 50¢ $118 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 29¢ $71 4h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 93¢ $359 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 81¢ $242 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $204 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 38¢ $0 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 38¢ $12 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 38¢ $62 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 38¢ $10 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 38¢ $5 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 38¢ $31 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 38¢ $2 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 38¢ $1 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 38¢ $10 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 38¢ $146 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 38¢ $2 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 38¢ $5 5h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 72¢ $40 5h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 72¢ $5 5h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 72¢ $12 5h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 82¢ $123 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $807.91 · official $807.98 (match) · 3500 history records