Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:23:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf30f…72c7 world 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate30%14W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$1
other 16% −$3
sports 14% −$1
politics 11% $0
crypto 1% −$7
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -5.1% -14.1% 40% 20% -6.5%
≤30d 20 +81.9% +64.6% 35% 10% -9.6%
≤90d 47 +32.2% +19.6% 30% 4% -10.1%
all 47 +32.2% +19.6% 30% 4% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.6% 4% -10.1%
10% +8.1% 2% -18.7%
15% -2.3% 2% -26.5%
20% -11.9% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses14 / 33
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage471d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $1 $0 -13%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $25 +$4 +14%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $3 −$1 -29%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $38 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $73 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $90 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $86 −$2 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $38 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $45 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 30 $147 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 29 $3 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $37 $0 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $26 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $44 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $44 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $42 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 18 $45 −$1 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 18 $68 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $2 $0 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $2 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 -6%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $75 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $11 $0 -3%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $101 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $48 −$1 -1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $60 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $44 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $17 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $2 $0 -18%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $4 $0 -2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $51 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bybit buy >$1b ETH by next Friday? Apr 14 $17 −$7 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $39 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 17h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $14 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $11 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $25 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $0 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $18 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $20 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $46 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $45 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $45 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $45 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $45 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $45 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $45 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $45 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $4 13d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $32 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $6 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $38 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.68 · official $38.64 (match) · 216 history records