Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:47:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F3 0xf30c…a7a7 sports 751 markets active 0h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$675 (-0%) realized −$675 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate68%510W / 241L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$93est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$101
7 days+$91
14 days+$28
30 days−$762
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$12
crypto 7% +$9
sports 5% −$553
tech 4% +$3
culture 3% +$7
weather 2% −$41
world 1% −$193
politics 0% −$9
economics 0% −$6
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +9.9% -0.6% 76% 58% -0.2%
≤30d 250 -7.8% -16.6% 44% 32% -18.6%
≤90d 419 -13.4% -21.7% 53% 21% -12.9%
all 751 -7.4% -16.2% 68% 12% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 12% -10.1%
10% -24.2% 7% -18.7%
15% -31.5% 6% -26.5%
20% -38.2% 5% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$675
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses510 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$93
Open positions0
Markets (closed)751 / 751
History coverage197d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 751 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 29 $42 −$20 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 29 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 29 $50 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 28 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 28 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 28 $47 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$11 +22%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 +$3 +15%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 28 $19 +$40 +205%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $19 +$16 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 27 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 27 $8 +$1 +17%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai Jun 27 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$15 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +7%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 27 $19 +$8 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $24 −$24 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $43 −$14 -32%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $23 −$2 -7%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $24 −$1 -6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $24 +$21 +88%
Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $14 −$2 -12%
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $51 −$1 -1%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Li vs Birrell Jun 16 $7 +$5 +73%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $52 +$85 +164%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 16 $0 $0 +28%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 15 $33 −$6 -19%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $23 +$4 +18%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $45 −$45 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $24 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2861 history records