Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F3 0xf30a…0fa4 sports 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$5,540 (+10%) realized +$5,540 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%36W / 36L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$764per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$87
7 days+$958
14 days+$958
30 days+$958
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$6,247
other 29% +$904
politics 9% −$23
world 6% −$1,830
finance 1% +$220
crypto 0% +$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +30.2% +17.8% 44% 44% +22.6%
≤30d 9 +30.2% +17.8% 44% 44% +22.6%
≤90d 11 +6.6% -3.6% 36% 36% +8.9%
all 72 +12.9% +2.1% 50% 40% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.1% 40% +0.2%
10% -7.7% 38% -9.4%
15% -16.6% 35% -18.2%
20% -24.8% 29% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$333 vs −$177 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,540
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses36 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)72 / 72
History coverage161d
Avg bet$764
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 72 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 +$161 +158%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 +$466 +309%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $462 −$450 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $308 −$283 -92%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $255 −$250 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $647 +$565 +87%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $200 −$195 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $498 +$1,044 +210%
Mavericks vs. Spurs Apr 11 $93 −$90 -97%
Lakers vs. Magic Mar 22 $249 −$249 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 18 $1,499 −$1,499 -100%
Heat vs. 76ers Feb 27 $100 +$63 +63%
Knicks vs. Pistons Feb 07 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 05 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Feb 05 $50 +$120 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 05 $100 +$67 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 05 $50 −$49 -98%
Pistons vs. Warriors Jan 31 $200 −$200 -100%
Nets vs. Jazz Jan 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Clippers vs. Nuggets Jan 31 $200 −$200 -100%
Raptors vs. Magic Jan 31 $347 +$1,579 +455%
Trail Blazers vs. Knicks Jan 31 $225 −$201 -89%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? Jan 31 $550 −$2 -0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 29 $706 −$156 -22%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Jan 27 $100 −$63 -63%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Jan 25 $39 +$160 +411%
Celtics vs. Bulls Jan 25 $220 +$467 +212%
Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist P Jan 23 $11,712 +$147 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 22 $100 +$17 +17%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 22 $500 −$65 -13%
Hawks vs. Grizzlies Jan 22 $1,220 −$171 -14%
Pacers vs. Celtics Jan 22 $200 −$15 -8%
Spurs vs. Rockets Jan 21 $200 +$380 +190%
Suns vs. 76ers Jan 21 $3,859 +$172 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 20 $300 +$130 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 20 $25 +$2 +10%
Pacers vs. 76ers Jan 20 $150 +$47 +31%
Jazz vs. Spurs Jan 20 $100 −$98 -98%
Clippers vs. Wizards Jan 19 $4,794 +$288 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026 Jan 19 $600 +$114 +19%
Hornets vs. Nuggets Jan 19 $4,289 +$139 +3%
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal pre Jan 18 $4,155 +$133 +3%
Lakers vs. Trail Blazers Jan 18 $4,576 −$275 -6%
Wizards vs. Nuggets Jan 18 $412 −$400 -97%
Thunder vs. Heat Jan 18 $470 +$351 +75%
Pacers vs. Pistons Jan 18 $150 −$137 -92%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Clippers vs. Raptors Jan 17 $100 +$104 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $263 42m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $617 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $151 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $348 19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $25 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 1¢ $25 20h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $89 21h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $308 21h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 30¢ $255 42h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $1,212 42h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $647 42h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $46 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $153 44h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $1,542 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $498 2d
Mavericks vs. Spurs BUY Mavericks 2¢ $93 67d
Lakers vs. Magic BUY Magic 61¢ $249 87d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 68¢ $1,499 109d
Heat vs. 76ers SELL Heat 49¢ $163 110d
Heat vs. 76ers BUY Heat 30¢ $100 110d
Knicks vs. Pistons BUY Knicks 22¢ $150 130d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $10 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $25 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $50 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $50 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $100 132d
Pistons vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 26¢ $200 137d
Nets vs. Jazz BUY Jazz 25¢ $100 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 197 history records