Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:33:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf307…84e5 crypto 283 markets active 0h ago coverage 341d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$90 (-5%) realized −$90 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate66%188W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$22
14 days−$54
30 days−$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$89
crypto 26% −$15
other 12% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -9.0% -17.7% 52% 41% -16.2%
≤30d 277 -7.5% -16.3% 67% 30% -15.6%
≤90d 280 -7.7% -16.5% 67% 29% -15.8%
all 283 -7.5% -16.3% 66% 29% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 29% -16.0%
10% -24.3% 18% -24.1%
15% -31.7% 14% -31.4%
20% -38.4% 11% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

341d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses188 / 95
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)283 / 283
History coverage341d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 283 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $5 +$1 +21%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $3 +$2 +65%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $6 −$2 -34%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $22 +$8 +34%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -58%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $2 −$2 -92%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +233%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -66%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $2 +$2 +79%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 $0 -1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$5 +178%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $6 $0 +8%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $15 −$9 -61%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +27%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$3 -49%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $8 −$2 -23%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $6 +$4 +64%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +18%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +107%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3 $0 +10%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -59%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $6 +$2 +38%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$6 +113%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +104%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -88%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -84%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $27 −$2 -8%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $3 +$2 +72%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +14%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $5 +$3 +50%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $5 +$2 +47%
Modena: Laura Samson vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 10 $5 −$2 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 88¢ $6 2m
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 72¢ $5 8m
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 94¢ $5 1h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 56¢ $3 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Bangladesh 0¢ $0 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 2¢ $1 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Bangladesh 5¢ $2 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 7¢ $1 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 8¢ $2 5h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Australia 92¢ $2 5h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 93¢ $2 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 88¢ $4 7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 81¢ $25 7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 8h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 17h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 18h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 18h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Arthur Rinderknech 36¢ $2 20h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 2¢ $0 21h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva SELL Alexander Zverev 99¢ $6 22h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 24¢ $2 22h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 78¢ $5 22h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 39h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 39h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $7 40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 40h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 41h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 743 history records