Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:29:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf306…2155 weather 159 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$183 (-3%) realized −$183 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%53W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$32
14 days−$32
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$3
weather 28% +$29
crypto 5% −$67
sports 4% −$49
tech 3% −$74
other 3% −$29
politics 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -66.7% -69.8% 0% 0% -39.8%
≤30d 3 -66.7% -69.8% 0% 0% -39.8%
≤90d 109 -10.3% -18.9% 27% 21% -13.7%
all 159 -2.5% -11.8% 33% 29% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 29% -9.5%
10% -20.2% 25% -18.2%
15% -27.9% 22% -26.1%
20% -35.0% 19% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$19 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$183
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses53 / 106
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)159 / 159
History coverage116d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 159 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $65 −$3 -5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $39 −$27 -69%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 3? May 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 2? May 02 $12 −$6 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 1? May 01 $4 +$8 +217%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 30? Apr 30 $8 −$4 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 30 Apr 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 29 Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 30? Apr 29 $14 −$14 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on April 29? Apr 29 $16 +$21 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 28? Apr 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 28 Apr 28 $9 −$6 -74%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 27 $128 −$128 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 25 $103 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on April 25? Apr 24 $68 −$14 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 24? Apr 24 $60 −$59 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 26? Apr 24 $10 −$8 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 24? Apr 24 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 24 $40 +$41 +102%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 25? Apr 23 $20 −$12 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 23? Apr 23 $33 +$15 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 24? Apr 23 $18 −$16 -93%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 23? Apr 23 $40 +$8 +20%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Apr 23 $12 +$2 +13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $119 −$116 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 23 $23 −$11 -48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $152 −$64 -42%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 22 $38 −$32 -84%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $17 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 22 Apr 22 $15 −$8 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 22? Apr 22 $45 −$12 -27%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $30 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 22? Apr 22 $34 −$18 -53%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 22? Apr 22 $30 −$7 -23%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $97 +$4 +4%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 Apr 21 $70 +$39 +55%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr 21 $101 +$13 +13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Apr 21 $24 +$15 +62%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $71 −$24 -33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $250 −$99 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 21? Apr 21 $4 −$2 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 21? Apr 21 $24 −$18 -78%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 21 $122 −$27 -22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 23? Apr 21 $21 −$20 -96%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Apr 21 $200 −$74 -37%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $251 +$75 +30%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 20 $280 −$98 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 20? Apr 20 $13 +$5 +38%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 20 $72 −$30 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 30¢ $33 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 30¢ $34 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 34¢ $29 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 35¢ $31 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 29¢ $11 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 25¢ $39 26h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 38h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 3? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 51d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 3? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 51d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 3? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 51d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 3? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 51d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 3? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 51d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 2? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 52d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 2? BUY Yes 21¢ $12 53d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 1? SELL Yes 98¢ $12 53d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 1? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 54d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 54d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 54d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 54d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 54d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 54d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 54d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 54d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 30 BUY Yes 25¢ $10 55d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 29 BUY Yes 35¢ $1 55d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 29 BUY Yes 35¢ $2 55d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 29 BUY Yes 35¢ $4 55d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 29 BUY Yes 35¢ $2 55d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 29 BUY Yes 35¢ $2 55d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 761 history records