Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:58:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf306…4cf8 crypto 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$128 (-12%) realized −$128 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%18W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day23.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$141
crypto 46% −$51
other 2% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-42.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -36.0% -42.1% 31% 29% -25.4%
≤30d 59 -36.0% -42.1% 31% 29% -25.4%
≤90d 59 -36.0% -42.1% 31% 29% -25.4%
all 59 -36.0% -42.1% 31% 29% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.1% 29% -25.4%
10% ← realistic here -47.6% 29% -32.5%
15% -52.7% 27% -39.0%
20% -57.3% 25% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$14 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$128
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses18 / 41
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage4d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day23.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $47 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $32 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$31 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -96%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -96%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $33 −$32 -98%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 +$40 +194%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $15 +$21 +136%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $22 −$22 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$12 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -96%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$12 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$7 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$8 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$29 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$8 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$13 +105%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $15 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $18 −$18 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $16 −$16 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $50 −$22 -44%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $29 −$29 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $27 +$24 +89%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5) Jun 12 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $17 +$17 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $9 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 11h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 11h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $18 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 111 history records