Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:23:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F3 0xf305…e7d8 crypto 69 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+8%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate67%46W / 23L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 43d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +12.8% +2.0% 60% 56% -1.2%
≤30d 45 +12.8% +2.0% 60% 56% -1.2%
≤90d 69 +10.5% -0.0% 67% 55% -4.7%
all 69 +10.5% -0.0% 67% 55% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.0% 55% -4.7%
10% -9.6% 46% -13.8%
15% -18.3% 45% -22.1%
20% -26.3% 30% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses46 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage43d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 03 $6 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 03 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 03 $10 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 144 history records