Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:06:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F3
0xf305…62a3
crypto · 92 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
−$332 -19%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$336 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$359
Realized−$336
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses59 / 26
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)85 / 92
History coverage755d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 6 History 85 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$33
14 days+$12
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $99 $91 −$8 (-8%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $79 +$28 (+56%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $52 $54 +$2 (+5%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $55 $48 −$8 (-14%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 46¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 70¢ 59¢ $49 $41 −$8 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $177 +$6 +3%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $32 +$1 +2%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +5%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $62 +$17 +27%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $30 +$3 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 11 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$7 -68%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 1, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 01 $10 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 01 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 01 $11 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 31? May 31 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 31 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 31 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 31 $5 $0 +8%
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? May 30 $47 $0 +0%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? May 20 $11 +$4 +34%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 12 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 11 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Apr 11 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 09 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 16? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 10 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 08 $11 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 08 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 08 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 08 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 08 $15 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 08 $5 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 32% −$137
sports 22% +$29
world 20% −$186
crypto 19% −$6
weather 6% −$1
culture 1% −$20
politics 0% −$6
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 99¢ $100 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 83¢ $30 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $36 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $30 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $9 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $2 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 94¢ $31 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 88¢ $30 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 23¢ $31 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 22¢ $31 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 19¢ $1 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 18¢ $0 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 18¢ $1 1h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 89¢ $11 18h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $10 18h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $20 18h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 19h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND W BUY 27¢ $1 24h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 91¢ $30 25h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $30 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $25 26h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $32 26h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E BUY Yes 70¢ $49 42h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $48 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $21 6d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $55 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +9.2% -1.2% 100% 22% -1.9%
≤30d 22 -4.3% -13.4% 73% 23% -7.3%
≤90d 43 -12.0% -20.4% 72% 23% -8.7%
all 85 -14.1% -22.3% 69% 27% -32.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 27% -32.1%
10% -29.8% 12% -38.6%
15% -36.5% 6% -44.5%
20% -42.8% 5% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $358.79 · official $359.79 (match) · 278 history records