Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:18:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf303…bd35 other 163 markets active 2d ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$38 (-0%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%18W / 145L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$18
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$25
politics 27% −$72
sports 15% −$11
crypto 10% +$13
world 5% −$6
culture 4% −$2
finance 3% −$8
tech 2% −$1
economics 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -0.8% -10.3% 6% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 68 -0.7% -10.2% 7% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 154 -0.6% -10.1% 10% 0% -10.0%
all 163 -0.5% -10.0% 11% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses18 / 145
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)163 / 163
History coverage97d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 163 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $101 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $161 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $112 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $51 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $58 −$1 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $112 −$1 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $474 −$4 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 11 $3 $0 -4%
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 11 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 11 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $94 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 09 $64 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $92 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $44 −$1 -3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 07 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 06 $9 $0 -1%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $44 −$3 -6%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $57 $0 -1%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $46 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 05 $152 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 04 $47 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $526 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 04 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $64 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 03 $63 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $98 −$1 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $42 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $118 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $51 −$1 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $162 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $120 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $338 −$3 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $188 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? May 29 $95 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? May 28 $5 $0 -1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $100 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $279 +$2 +1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $66 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $60 2d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $60 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $46 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $46 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $52 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $52 3d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $51 3d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $52 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $49 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 3d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 95¢ $51 3d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 95¢ $42 4d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 95¢ $10 4d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $58 4d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $58 4d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $50 4d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 4d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $45 4d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $49 4d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $49 4d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $57 5d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $57 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $54 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $54 5d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $44 5d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $35 5d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $10 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 674 history records