Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:21:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf302…7969 world 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate37%19W / 33L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% +$2
other 12% +$5
sports 4% +$9
tech 2% +$2
crypto 2% −$5
politics 2% $0
weather 1% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.6% -10.1% 38% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 20 -0.8% -10.2% 30% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 22 -6.2% -15.1% 27% 0% -9.1%
all 52 -6.1% -15.1% 37% 10% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 10% -8.6%
10% -23.2% 6% -17.3%
15% -30.6% 4% -25.3%
20% -37.4% 4% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses19 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage484d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $53 $0 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $33 +$2 +6%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $52 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $91 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $148 +$5 +3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $51 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $11 −$2 -19%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $43 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $53 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $43 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $16 $0 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $87 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $48 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $19 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $48 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 31 $5 −$1 -20%
Will another driver finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 26 $14 $0 -1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 21 $12 +$2 +17%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 9–16? May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 10 $5 $0 -4%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? May 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? May 05 $1 +$1 +64%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? May 03 $2 $0 +5%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 28 $5 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 07 $12 −$3 -22%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 06 $1 $0 -8%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 05 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 30 $3 $0 -10%
Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April? Mar 29 $1 $0 +3%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 28 $14 +$5 +33%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 46°F or below on March 24? Mar 25 $17 $0 +1%
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday? Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 22 $8 $0 -1%
Wofford vs. Tennessee Mar 21 $16 +$1 +5%
Bucks vs. Rockets Mar 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $48 2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $35 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $28 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $5 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $5 16h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $36 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $15 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $52 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $51 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $50 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $3 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $43 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $46 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $19 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $32 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $16 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $32 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $40 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $11 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $46 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 188 history records