Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:29:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf301…dd70 crypto 146 markets active 2h ago coverage 365d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$59 (-0%) realized −$293 · open +$234
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate53%70W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$40
14 days+$70
30 days+$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$87
tech 20% −$248
crypto 16% +$28
sports 13% +$35
politics 8% +$76
world 4% +$10
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +81.2% +63.9% 33% 33% -5.0%
≤30d 23 +23.3% +11.6% 61% 13% -7.2%
≤90d 41 -27.8% -34.7% 34% 7% -16.7%
all 133 +7.7% -2.6% 53% 33% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 33% -11.6%
10% -11.9% 23% -20.1%
15% -20.4% 17% -27.8%
20% -28.2% 11% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$23 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

365d coverage
Net worth$1,250
Realized−$293
Unrealized+$234
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses70 / 63
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions10
Markets (closed)133 / 146
History coverage365d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? No 65¢ 81¢ $325 $407 +$83 (+25%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? No 73¢ 72¢ $365 $357 −$7 (-2%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 69¢ $164 $281 +$117 (+71%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 9¢ 12¢ $72 $92 +$20 (+28%)
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 45¢ 70¢ $49 $76 +$27 (+56%)
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 6¢ 48¢ $2 $14 +$13 (+733%)
Will South Korea win the World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $22 $4 −$18 (-83%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 45¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $97 +$468 +485%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $458 −$458 -100%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 24 $1 $0 -4%
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $7 −$1 -18%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $210 −$9 -4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 +$39 +129%
Will Morocco win the World Cup? Jun 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 +39%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 15 $125 −$3 -3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $168 +$1 +1%
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $87 +$3 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $431 +$29 +7%
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 11 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 10 $303 +$4 +1%
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $24 −$1 -6%
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $61 +$1 +2%
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $30 $0 -1%
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $76 +$2 +2%
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 06 $822 +$12 +2%
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $400 +$5 +1%
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? May 07 $64 −$61 -95%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$175 on the final day of trading of the w May 07 $425 −$293 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? May 07 $25 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani not win the 2025 New York City mayoral election? May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will GroenLinks–Labour Party (GL–PvdA) win the most seats in The Hague May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Mar 19 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will GroenLinks (GL) win the most seats in Amsterdam’s 2026 municipal Feb 26 $2 +$1 +69%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 17 $80 −$30 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Feb 15 $1 +$9 +898%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Feb 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Feb 15 $10 +$2 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 63¢ $96 1h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 81¢ $458 13h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 17¢ $97 16h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 65¢ $13 16h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 65¢ $39 16h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 66¢ $20 20h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 66¢ $114 24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 66¢ $18 24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 66¢ $8 24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 66¢ $18 24h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 9¢ $36 28h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 9¢ $35 28h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 9¢ $1 33h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 43¢ $1 38h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 44¢ $1 38h
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 39h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 40h
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 41h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 67¢ $164 2d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 67¢ $2 2d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 67¢ $34 2d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 67¢ $1 2d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 3d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 70¢ $163 3d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 70¢ $10 3d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 70¢ $23 3d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 70¢ $14 3d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $73 3d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $45 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,249.81 · official $1,609.90 · 604 history records