Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:04:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F2 0xf2ff…8cad crypto 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$34 (+13%) realized +$46 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%21W / 30L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$29
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$38
other 30% −$7
crypto 18% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -13.9% -22.1% 39% 37% +5.1%
≤30d 51 -11.4% -19.8% 41% 37% +5.8%
≤90d 51 -11.4% -19.8% 41% 37% +5.8%
all 51 -11.4% -19.8% 41% 37% +5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 37% +5.8%
10% -27.5% 33% -4.3%
15% -34.5% 31% -13.6%
20% -40.9% 27% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$46
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses21 / 30
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions13
Markets (closed)51 / 64
History coverage8d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Sweden 67¢ 28¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-57%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Yes 8¢ 16¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+94%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $50 +$23 +46%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 +$3 +340%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $40 +$21 +52%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +30%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 $0 -6%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 +$6 +158%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$3 -64%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $1 $0 -13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$8 +152%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 67¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 14h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $73 14h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $50 25h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 86¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $61 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $40 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 73¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 21¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.45 · official $59.20 (match) · 102 history records