Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:52:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F2 0xf2fe…64f3 sports 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$283 (-4%) realized −$262 · open −$21
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%5W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$211est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$2,562
14 days+$1,990
30 days+$1,344
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$4
other 7% +$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +126.8% +105.2% 31% 31% +132.4%
≤30d 21 +76.6% +59.8% 24% 24% +29.4%
≤90d 30 +23.6% +11.9% 17% 17% -7.7%
all 30 +23.6% +11.9% 17% 17% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.9% 17% -7.7%
10% +1.2% 17% -16.5%
15% -8.6% 17% -24.6%
20% -17.6% 17% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -93% → late +141% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$636 vs −$124 · ×5.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized−$262
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses5 / 25
Est. fees paid−$211
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage47d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 17¢ $58 $19 −$39 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $38 +$73 +194%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$47 -46%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $38 −$22 -58%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $129 −$64 -50%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $37 −$5 -12%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2,928 +$2,088 +71%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $184 −$180 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $21 −$16 -79%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $137 −$106 -78%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United Jun 13 $78 +$419 +537%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $49 −$49 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $22 −$18 -80%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $10 −$7 -66%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $51 +$258 +509%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $29 +$341 +1185%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $126 −$103 -82%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $580 −$572 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $20 −$19 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $340 −$67 -20%
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs Legacy (+2.5) May 24 $197 −$193 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $374 −$366 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) May 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $103 −$100 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $82 −$80 -98%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) May 09 $431 −$425 -98%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) May 09 $82 −$80 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $198 −$194 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons May 03 $188 −$184 -98%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $40 −$39 -97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 02 $55 −$54 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $60 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $111 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $38 47h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 31¢ $54 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 15¢ $16 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 26¢ $65 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $96 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $32 2d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Spain 20¢ $32 2d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 22¢ $37 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $38 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $101 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $90 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $512 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 41¢ $100 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $84 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? SELL Yes $4 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $31 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $137 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes $21 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 4d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? SELL Yes $0 4d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Philadelphia Phillies $4 4d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 14¢ $14 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees $3 4d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 16¢ $4 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 17¢ $10 4d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 15¢ $4 4d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 100¢ $309 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $370 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.27 · official $137.27 (match) · 127 history records