Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:52:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2fe…97cc crypto 159 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (341 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$222 (+3%) realized +$222 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate64%101W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day341.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$51
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (341 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 +3.4% -6.5% 64% 49% -10.2%
≤30d 158 +3.4% -6.5% 64% 49% -10.2%
≤90d 158 +3.4% -6.5% 64% 49% -10.2%
all 158 +3.4% -6.5% 64% 49% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover341.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 49% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 36% -18.8%
15% -23.6% 24% -26.6%
20% -31.1% 16% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$16 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$222
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses101 / 57
Open positions1
Markets (closed)158 / 159
History coverage1d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day341.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $41 −$18 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $201 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $242 +$22 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $135 +$14 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $282 +$31 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $261 +$22 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $120 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $171 +$14 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $142 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $92 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $40 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $70 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $181 +$12 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $71 +$10 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $81 +$12 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $251 −$24 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $243 +$43 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $20 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $20 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $20 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $20 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $20 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $20 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $20 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $20 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.00 · official $1.00 (match) · 629 history records