Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:05:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F2 0xf2fb…65dd sports 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,547 (+26%) realized +$2,395 · open +$152
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%10W / 10L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$396per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$125est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$569now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$2,421
other 25% +$139
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +1.5% -8.2% 50% 50% +13.5%
≤30d 20 +1.5% -8.2% 50% 50% +13.5%
≤90d 20 +1.5% -8.2% 50% 50% +13.5%
all 20 +1.5% -8.2% 50% 50% +13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 50% +13.5%
10% -16.9% 45% +2.6%
15% -25.0% 45% -7.3%
20% -32.3% 45% -16.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$1,009) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$358 vs −$117 · ×3.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.06 per $1 lost it wins $3.06
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$569
Realized+$2,395
Unrealized+$152
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses10 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$125
Open positions5
Markets (closed)20 / 25
History coverage4d
Avg bet$396
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 76¢ $188 $300 +$112 (+59%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 97¢ $89 $125 +$36 (+40%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Over 44¢ 40¢ $60 $55 −$5 (-8%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Over 67¢ 64¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score No 49¢ 68¢ $30 $41 +$11 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +60%
Sweden to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 20 $61 −$61 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $142 +$92 +65%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $870 +$114 +13%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 +$52 +128%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,274 +$756 +59%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,013 +$749 +74%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,316 +$892 +68%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $304 −$13 -4%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $526 +$418 +79%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $403 −$400 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $446 −$440 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,009 −$46 -5%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,016 −$76 -8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $910 +$497 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $61 19m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $50 21m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $30 57m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $191 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $233 14h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 61¢ $613 14h
Sweden to score first vs. Netherlands? BUY Yes 34¢ $61 14h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $142 14h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $637 14h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $93 23h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2,030 23h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,762 23h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1,013 24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 43¢ $41 24h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $25 24h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1,274 24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2,208 29h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 29h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $1,316 29h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 56¢ $291 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $304 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $526 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $403 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $446 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 69¢ $963 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $568.93 · official $568.93 (match) · 42 history records