Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:36:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

F2 0xf2fb…8a46 tech 19 markets active 3h ago coverage 88d

TRAPdo not copy tech specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$46 (+1%) realized +$32 · open +$14

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate100%14W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$361per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$2,460now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 88d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-8.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+0.1%	-9.4%	100%	0%	-9.4%
≤30d	5	+0.1%	-9.4%	100%	0%	-9.4%
≤90d	14	+1.1%	-8.5%	100%	0%	-8.6%
all	14	+1.1%	-8.5%	100%	0%	-8.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.5%	0%	-8.6%
10%	-17.3%	0%	-17.3%
15%	-25.3%	0%	-25.3%
20%	-32.6%	0%	-32.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 54% · top 2 78% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage

Net worth$2,460

Realized+$32

Unrealized+$14

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses14 / 0

Open positions5

Markets (closed)14 / 19

History coverage88d

Avg bet$361

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	100¢	100¢	$634	$634	−$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	94¢	97¢	$512	$528	+$16 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?	No	100¢	100¢	$482	$482	+$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June?	No	100¢	100¢	$439	$439	−$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	98¢	98¢	$378	$377	−$2 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31	Jun 23	$400	$0	+0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3	Jun 23	$400	$0	+0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Jun 23	$448	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	Jun 23	$599	+$1	+0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	Jun 23	$599	+$1	+0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	May 19	$133	+$2	+2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	May 19	$248	+$3	+1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April	May 19	$278	+$11	+4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	May 19	$327	+$25	+8%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Apr 02	$75	$0	+0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Apr 02	$86	$0	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March?	Apr 02	$218	$0	+0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?	Apr 02	$280	+$1	+0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March	Apr 02	$325	+$1	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June	BUY Yes	98¢	$379	2h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	BUY Yes	94¢	$513	2h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June?	BUY No	100¢	$439	2h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?	BUY No	100¢	$482	2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	BUY No	100¢	$635	3h
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$448	34d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3	BUY No	100¢	$400	34d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31	BUY No	100¢	$400	34d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$599	34d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$599	34d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	BUY No	98¢	$5	82d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	BUY No	98¢	$128	82d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April	BUY Yes	96¢	$278	82d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	BUY No	99¢	$248	82d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	BUY Yes	93¢	$327	82d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$75	88d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$86	88d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March	BUY Yes	100¢	$325	88d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?	BUY No	100¢	$280	88d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March?	BUY No	100¢	$218	88d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,460.41 · official $2,460.41 (match) · 34 history records