Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:36:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2f7…40c8 sports 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$287 (-17%) realized −$287 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%38W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$74
14 days−$129
30 days−$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$27
crypto 24% −$128
other 19% −$120
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +37.8% +24.7% 73% 73% +14.8%
≤30d 36 -18.8% -26.5% 42% 42% -28.7%
≤90d 36 -18.8% -26.5% 42% 42% -28.7%
all 71 -13.3% -21.6% 54% 51% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 51% -23.2%
10% -29.1% 39% -30.6%
15% -35.9% 32% -37.3%
20% -42.2% 23% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$18 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$287
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses38 / 33
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 76
History coverage242d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 24 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$17 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$27 +86%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $13 +$13 +101%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-2 Jun 20 $24 +$11 +44%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $17 +$30 +172%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$12 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $46 +$11 +24%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $35 −$35 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$5 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +79%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +344%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $21 +$4 +21%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $15 −$14 -94%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $36 −$36 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 +$19 +60%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -94%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -94%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -94%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -94%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 4? Nov 04 $72 −$29 -40%
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on November 4? Nov 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nets Nov 04 $20 +$5 +27%
Mavericks vs. Rockets Nov 04 $31 +$7 +22%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on November 3? Nov 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on November 3? Nov 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Seahawks vs. Commanders Nov 03 $20 +$12 +58%
Flames vs. Flyers Nov 03 $20 +$7 +37%
Hellenic Championship, Qualification: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Mackenzie Nov 03 $15 +$7 +45%
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Cristina Bucsa vs Victoria Mboko Nov 02 $30 +$3 +10%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $30 +$2 +6%
Rockets vs. Celtics Nov 02 $20 +$10 +52%
Jiangxi Open: Elena Pridankina vs Viktorija Golubic Oct 29 $67 −$67 -100%
Jiangxi Open: Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs Lilli Tagger Oct 29 $73 −$6 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $14 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $15 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down $6 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $31 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? AN BUY 62¢ $45 13h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY 49¢ $13 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 AND W BUY 48¢ $24 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-2 BUY 69¢ $24 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY 36¢ $17 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY 54¢ $19 4d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY 52¢ $10 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY 70¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $46 5d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $35 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 25¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 6d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 8d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $10 8d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 8d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 8d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 8d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $11 9d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 9d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $21 9d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 127 history records