Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:08:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F2
0xf2f6…5817
other · 33 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,590,077 -303%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,663,049 · open +$29,834
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Net worth$571,541
Realized−$1,663,049
Unrealized+$29,834
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses30 / 399
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$680
Open positions85
Markets (closed)429 / 33
History coverage45d
Avg bet$15,915
Trades / day74.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 85 History 429 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,662,114
7 days−$1,662,114
14 days−$1,655,203
30 days−$1,665,578
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 69¢ 57¢ $151,081 $124,234 −$26,847 (-18%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 29¢ 62¢ $27,033 $57,610 +$30,577 (+113%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 64¢ 96¢ $36,832 $55,161 +$18,329 (+50%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 82¢ 100¢ $33,728 $41,242 +$7,515 (+22%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40,367 $39,938 −$429 (-1%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 95¢ 99¢ $34,845 $36,266 +$1,421 (+4%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $32,892 $28,936 −$3,955 (-12%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 51¢ 54¢ $25,500 $26,750 +$1,250 (+5%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $20,167 $18,134 −$2,033 (-10%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 84¢ 87¢ $16,760 $17,410 +$650 (+4%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $9,112 $15,584 +$6,472 (+71%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 33¢ 44¢ $8,496 $11,331 +$2,835 (+33%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 49¢ 46¢ $9,986 $9,397 −$589 (-6%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7,348 $6,174 −$1,174 (-16%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 61¢ 88¢ $4,049 $5,825 +$1,776 (+44%)
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? Yes 73¢ 82¢ $4,449 $5,039 +$590 (+13%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes 16¢ 30¢ $2,559 $4,763 +$2,205 (+86%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,992 $4,495 +$503 (+13%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 54¢ 88¢ $2,720 $4,376 +$1,656 (+61%)
Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? Yes 73¢ 84¢ $3,742 $4,287 +$545 (+15%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,988 $3,972 −$1,016 (-20%)
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 92¢ $2,468 $3,459 +$991 (+40%)
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 85¢ 93¢ $3,084 $3,383 +$299 (+10%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 49¢ 56¢ $2,724 $3,071 +$347 (+13%)
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes 16¢ 35¢ $1,386 $3,044 +$1,659 (+120%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 15%? Jun 12 $66 −$65 -99%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by August 31? Jun 12 $316 −$316 -100%
Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be betwe Jun 12 $161 −$161 -100%
AS Roma vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $11,302 −$11,302 -100%
Will Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) win the Nobel Jun 12 $710 −$710 -100%
Will turnout be between 6.2 million and 6.6 million in the 2025 Bolivi Jun 12 $450 −$465 -103%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 12 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Vladislav Artemiev win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championshi Jun 12 $243 −$243 -100%
Will Curtis Sliwa win Staten Island? Jun 12 $3,463 −$3,463 -100%
Oilers vs. Flames: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $1,542 −$1,671 -108%
2025 September third hottest on record? Jun 12 $2,524 −$1,242 -49%
Will turnout be more than 69% in the Czech election? Jun 12 $144 −$144 -100%
Czechia vs. Republic of Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $11,400 −$11,400 -100%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential E Jun 12 $188 −$201 -107%
Will Anca Alexandrescu get between 15% and 20% of the vote in the Buch Jun 12 $103 −$103 -100%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 8? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%? Jun 12 $7,684 −$7,684 -100%
Bruins vs. Islanders Jun 12 $4,885 −$4,885 -100%
Spread: Jacksonville Dolphins (-2.5) Jun 12 $7,650 −$7,650 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $9,495 −$9,495 -100%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jun 12 $474 −$680 -143%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Jun 12 $7,061 −$7,582 -107%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parl Jun 12 $210 −$210 -100%
Chargers vs. Chiefs Jun 12 $9,343 −$9,343 -100%
Will Kyrgyzstan win Intervision 2025? Jun 12 $510 −$510 -100%
Will Tisza win at least 120 seats? Jun 12 $3,380 −$3,380 -100%
Will José Miguel Aguilar Berrocal win the 2026 Costa Rican presidentia Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Nets vs. 76ers Jun 12 $19,750 −$19,750 -100%
Will Trump talk to Putin by November 30? Jun 12 $207 −$207 -100%
Will Daniil Dubov win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship? Jun 12 $623 −$623 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei Jun 12 $2,305 +$1,504 +65%
Epstein client list released in 2025? Jun 12 $5,529 −$1,671 -30%
Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Jun 12 $1,338 −$1,338 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Liquid (BO3) Jun 12 $26,550 −$26,550 -100%
North Texas vs. Tulane Jun 12 $25,148 −$25,148 -100%
Will Claude win the okbet trading competition? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Russia win Intervision 2025? Jun 12 $960 −$960 -100%
Will less than 12 named storms occur in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane se Jun 12 $23 $0 +1%
UFC Fight Night: Dalby vs. Izagakhmaev (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 12 $20,720 −$20,720 -100%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jun 12 $710 −$710 -100%
Will Călin Georgescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 12 $901 −$901 -100%
Will the blue bloc win between 72 and 74 seats in the Norwegian electi Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 20 Jun 12 $648 +$256 +40%
Will André Ventura win the second round? Jun 12 $857 −$3,269 -381%
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Jun 12 $14,800 −$14,800 -100%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electi Jun 12 $918 −$918 -100%
Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens Jun 12 $11,040 −$11,040 -100%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 12 $255 −$255 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 46% +$49,351
crypto 29% +$14,558
world 13% −$26,587
sports 6% +$24,560
politics 5% +$7,013
weather 0% +$4,733
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7,493 11m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $22 11m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $22 12m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $27 13m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 13m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 14m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $35 15m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $19 16m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 17m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 18m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $28 18m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 19m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 20m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 21m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 22m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 23m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 24m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 25m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 25m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 27m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 28m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 29m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $40 35m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $28 40m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $25 40m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 42m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 43m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 50m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 51m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 52m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-67.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 415 -68.8% -71.8% 5% 4% -93.2%
≤30d 424 -65.7% -68.9% 6% 5% -83.8%
≤90d 429 -64.3% -67.7% 7% 6% -80.9%
all 429 -64.3% -67.7% 7% 6% -80.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover74.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -67.7% 6% -80.9%
10% -70.8% 5% -82.7%
15% ← realistic here -73.6% 5% -84.4%
20% -76.2% 5% -85.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $571,541.44 · official $571,569.08 (match) · 3500 history records