Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:51:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2f5…b306 other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized +$0 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$14
crypto 15% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -3.6% -12.8% 54% 46% -11.5%
≤30d 13 -3.6% -12.8% 54% 46% -11.5%
≤90d 13 -3.6% -12.8% 54% 46% -11.5%
all 13 -3.6% -12.8% 54% 46% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 46% -11.5%
10% -21.2% 46% -20.0%
15% -28.8% 46% -27.7%
20% -35.8% 38% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -73% → late +56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Open positions16
Markets (closed)13 / 29
History coverage4d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 14h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 14h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 14h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.36 · official $104.36 (match) · 47 history records