Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:35:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F2
0xf2f2…1762
other · 142 markets active 9h ago
0.0score
−$19,495 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19,522 · open −$827
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$10,020
Realized−$19,522
Unrealized−$827
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses36 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions17
Markets (closed)151 / 142
Avg bet$2,102
Trades / day73.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%
Chart Positions 17 History 151 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9,144
7 days−$18,643
14 days−$19,294
30 days−$19,522
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $3,211 $4,029 +$818 (+25%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 33¢ 24¢ $3,300 $2,400 −$900 (-27%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 25¢ 38¢ $1,445 $2,225 +$780 (+54%)
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? No 70¢ 76¢ $699 $754 +$55 (+8%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $220 $190 −$30 (-14%)
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May? Yes 11¢ 24¢ $80 $181 +$100 (+125%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1,327 $85 −$1,241 (-94%)
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be below -4% in May? Yes 5¢ 33¢ $10 $70 +$60 (+591%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $267 $64 −$203 (-76%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-25%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $66 $5 −$61 (-92%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $88 $4 −$84 (-96%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $15 $1 −$13 (-91%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $16 $1 −$15 (-93%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $35 $1 −$34 (-97%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $55 $1 −$54 (-98%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$3 (-83%)
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $311 $0 −$311 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $373 $0 −$373 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? No 9¢ 0¢ $909 $0 −$909 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $373 $0 −$373 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $371 $0 −$371 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $373 $0 −$373 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 12 $311 −$311 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 12 $311 −$311 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 12 $311 −$311 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 12 $311 −$311 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 12 $311 −$311 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $313 +$244 +78%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2,572 −$2,015 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $70 −$67 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $1,072 −$1,027 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $39 −$37 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $4,015 −$2,798 -70%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $35 −$33 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $253 −$242 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $3,202 +$693 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $46 −$44 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $1,109 −$1,061 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $1,138 +$258 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $257 −$247 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $784 −$752 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $49 −$47 -96%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $1,332 −$1,277 -96%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $46,165 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $875 −$815 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $1,010 −$909 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $1,992 −$798 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $13 −$12 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $20 −$19 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $71 −$69 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $113 −$110 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 39% +$1,941
politics 28% −$320
world 19% −$16,664
crypto 9% +$482
finance 3% +$1,749
culture 2% +$1,315
sports 1% +$1,853
tech 1% −$1,317
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2,720 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $24 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $499 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $933 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $22 8h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $130 2d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $13 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $1,269 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $24 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $570 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $39 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $22 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $314 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $146 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $119 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $443 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $108 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -85.3% -86.7% 9% 9% -30.8%
≤30d 151 -20.4% -28.0% 24% 23% -16.8%
≤90d 151 -20.4% -28.0% 24% 23% -16.8%
all 151 -20.4% -28.0% 24% 23% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover73.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.0% 23% -16.8%
10% -34.9% 21% -24.8%
15% ← realistic here -41.2% 17% -32.0%
20% -46.9% 17% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,020.08 · official $9,890.75 · 2058 history records