Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:49:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F2 0xf2ee…8a02 other 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this
Total PnL +$122 (+11%) realized +$128 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%30W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$63
14 days+$109
30 days+$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$89
crypto 19% −$15
sports 5% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +17.9% +6.7% 53% 53% -3.3%
≤30d 55 +29.5% +17.2% 55% 55% -0.2%
≤90d 55 +29.5% +17.2% 55% 55% -0.2%
all 55 +29.5% +17.2% 55% 55% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.2% 55% -0.2%
10% +6.0% 47% -9.7%
15% -4.2% 47% -18.4%
20% -13.6% 38% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +56% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$14 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$128
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses30 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)55 / 58
History coverage12d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-2.5) France 59¢ 44¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-26%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? No 2¢ 4¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+159%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$9 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$8 +719%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$6 +41%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 22 $22 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$4 +42%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $16 +$2 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $152 +$77 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$30 +291%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$8 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 17 $23 −$3 -14%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 $0 -8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$99 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $64 +$26 +40%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$10 +93%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$12 +125%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $120 +$57 +48%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 16 $9 +$41 +442%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$2 -20%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 +$29 +262%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $48 +$29 +59%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$9 +596%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 2¢ $1 26m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 59¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $21 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $7 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $8 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.88 · official $35.72 (match) · 124 history records