Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:52:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

F2 0xf2ee…945d sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$533 (+30%) realized +$541 · open −$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +117% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +96% what you keep after slip

Net edge+96%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%5W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$256per market

Trades / day1.9pace

Fees−$17est.

Kalshi-fit57%portable

Net worth$842now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+95.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+116.6%	+95.9%	100%	100%	+90.1%
≤30d	5	+116.6%	+95.9%	100%	100%	+90.1%
≤90d	5	+116.6%	+95.9%	100%	100%	+90.1%
all	5	+116.6%	+95.9%	100%	100%	+90.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+95.9%	100%	+90.1%
10%	+77.2%	100%	+71.9%
15%	+60.1%	100%	+55.3%
20%	+44.4%	80%	+40.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 48% · top 2 77% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +110% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +117% · $-wt +110% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$205 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$842

Realized+$541

Unrealized−$8

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses5 / 0

Est. fees paid−$17

Open positions2

Markets (closed)5 / 7

History coverage4d

Avg bet$256

Trades / day1.9

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Under	55¢	55¢	$500	$495	−$5 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$350	$347	−$3 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$102	+$298	+291%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$223	+$177	+79%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$60	+$40	+67%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$508	+$492	+97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$40	+$19	+48%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	55¢	$507	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$354	1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	25¢	$102	5h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	55¢	$223	17h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	50¢	$508	17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$60	17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$40	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $842.44 · official $842.44 (match) · 12 history records