Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:39:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F2 0xf2ee…68cb other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$41 (+16%) realized +$78 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$49
14 days+$49
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$2
politics 32% +$18
sports 14% +$17
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -3.0% -12.3% 43% 43% +25.7%
≤30d 8 +29.5% +17.2% 50% 50% +40.0%
≤90d 8 +29.5% +17.2% 50% 50% +40.0%
all 8 +29.5% +17.2% 50% 50% +40.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.2% 50% +40.0%
10% +6.0% 50% +26.6%
15% -4.3% 50% +14.4%
20% -13.6% 50% +3.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +55% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$8 · ×3.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.41 per $1 lost it wins $3.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized+$78
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)8 / 16
History coverage20d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? Yes 51¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 60¢ 4¢ $19 $1 −$18 (-94%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$17 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $15 +$16 +105%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 25 $44 +$41 +93%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 22 $20 −$6 -28%
Will Petro mention Hitler again by June 30? Jun 10 $10 +$25 +258%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 1h
Will Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 28h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 60¢ $4 6d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 6d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 6d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 6d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 6d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 6d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 58¢ $25 16d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 18d
Will Petro mention Hitler again by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 19d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 44¢ $9 19d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 44¢ $10 19d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 11¢ $18 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.26 · official $82.26 (match) · 28 history records