Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:53:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2ec…07ef other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 289d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate27%13W / 35L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% $0
world 35% $0
politics 9% −$6
sports 7% +$17
tech 5% −$1
economics 1% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.4% -9.2% 38% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 12 +1.8% -7.9% 42% 8% -9.5%
≤90d 17 +0.2% -9.4% 35% 6% -9.8%
all 48 -1.0% -10.4% 27% 4% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 4% -8.8%
10% -19.0% 2% -17.5%
15% -26.8% 2% -25.5%
20% -34.0% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

289d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses13 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage289d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $53 −$4 -8%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $48 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $25 +$2 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 20 $8 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $50 +$1 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $74 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $5 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $94 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $4 +$1 +19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $13 +$1 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $4 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $2 $0 -18%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $28 −$2 -7%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 24 $51 −$4 -8%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $3 $0 -7%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 04 $2 −$2 -81%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $2 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $128 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $29 $0 +0%
Clippers vs. Hornets Nov 24 $26 +$18 +70%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $35 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $19 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 21 $29 $0 +1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $29 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Nov 20 $32 $0 -1%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-22? Nov 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Nov 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Nov 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Nov 14 $16 $0 +1%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the #1 searched person on Google this year Oct 24 $1 $0 -25%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 24 $35 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? Sep 09 $35 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $49 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 51¢ $53 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $37 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $11 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $5 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $42 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $17 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $34 19h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 22h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 22h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 25h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $17 30h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 33h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $4 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $50 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $50 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $49 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $49 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $4 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $4 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $25 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $25 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 327 history records