Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:53:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2ea…ebce crypto 250 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$774 (-16%) realized −$772 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate27%56W / 149L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$745
sports 26% −$110
world 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 15 -69.1% -72.0% 13% 13% -29.9%
all 205 -28.1% -34.9% 27% 24% -31.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.9% 24% -31.3%
10% -41.1% 19% -37.8%
15% -46.8% 17% -43.9%
20% -52.0% 14% -49.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$11 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$772
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses56 / 149
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions45
Markets (closed)205 / 250
History coverage157d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 125 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 28 $26 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 28 $110 −$107 -98%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $100 −$7 -7%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $320 +$44 +14%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $173 −$14 -8%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $404 −$6 -2%
Oilers vs. Ducks Apr 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Apr 24 $8 −$6 -74%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 24 $32 −$30 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 24 $6 −$6 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Apr 24 $8 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Apr 24 $11 −$10 -94%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Feb 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Feb 19 $19 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Feb 19 $74 −$20 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Feb 19 $11 +$8 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Feb 19 $25 +$19 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Feb 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Feb 19 $20 −$10 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Feb 19 $15 −$15 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Feb 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Feb 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 18 $21 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Feb 18 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Feb 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Feb 18 $11 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Feb 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Feb 18 $7 −$4 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Feb 18 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Feb 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Feb 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Feb 18 $1 +$1 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jan 25 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 2AM ET Jan 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jan 25 $12 −$12 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jan 25 $65 −$2 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jan 25 $25 −$19 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jan 25 $9 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jan 25 $40 −$39 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 11PM ET Jan 25 $23 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 10PM ET Jan 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jan 25 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jan 25 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 8PM ET Jan 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jan 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.93 · official $94.94 (match) · 679 history records