Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:48:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F2 0xf2e7…7e4a crypto 218 markets active 3h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$36 (+2%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate92%201W / 17L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day33.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$23
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$20
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 170 -0.3% -9.8% 92% 9% -10.9%
≤30d 218 +1.9% -7.8% 92% 14% -8.6%
≤90d 218 +1.9% -7.8% 92% 14% -8.6%
all 218 +1.9% -7.8% 92% 14% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 14% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 6% -17.4%
15% -24.7% 3% -25.4%
20% -32.1% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses201 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)218 / 218
History coverage9d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 218 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$3 +19%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +13%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $11 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$4 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$23 -89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 17h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 17h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 18h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 18h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $15 18h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $11 18h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $11 18h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 19h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $11 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $11 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 19h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $25 22h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 22h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 22h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $25 24h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 649 history records