Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:31:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2e7…2040 other 692 markets active 0h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$246 (-1%) realized −$246 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate87%599W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$49
14 days−$49
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$129
crypto 4% −$44
weather 1% −$72
sports 0% −$11
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -13.2% -21.5% 64% 27% -15.3%
≤30d 22 -13.2% -21.5% 64% 27% -15.3%
≤90d 197 -15.9% -23.9% 66% 8% -13.2%
all 692 -5.4% -14.4% 87% 6% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 6% -10.8%
10% -22.6% 2% -19.3%
15% -30.1% 2% -27.1%
20% -37.0% 1% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$246
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses599 / 93
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)692 / 692
History coverage104d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 692 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $43 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$6 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$10 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $27 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $76 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $86 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $77 +$3 +4%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $85 +$10 +12%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $4 $0 -13%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on March 27? Mar 29 $6 +$4 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 27 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 27 $2 +$1 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on March 27? Mar 27 $5 −$2 -50%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 27? Mar 27 $3 +$2 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on March 27? Mar 27 $16 −$10 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 27? Mar 27 $2 +$4 +151%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 27? Mar 27 $20 +$9 +43%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 27? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 27? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 20°C on March 28? Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on March 27? Mar 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 19°C or below on March 28? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on March 26 Mar 26 $8 +$4 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on March 26 Mar 26 $3 +$1 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 26? Mar 26 $2 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 26? Mar 26 $13 −$12 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 26? Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on March 26 Mar 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on March 26? Mar 26 $3 −$2 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on March 26? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on March 26? Mar 26 $2 −$1 -63%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 26? Mar 26 $28 −$22 -80%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 26? Mar 26 $16 −$7 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 26? Mar 26 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on March 26? Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C or below on March 26? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 5°C on March 26? Mar 26 $4 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $38 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $38 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $13 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1699 history records