Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:55:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2e5…f172 weather 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,186 (-2%) realized −$1,151 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate83%114W / 23L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$449per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$634now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% +$54
weather 15% −$142
world 15% −$1,360
other 15% +$225
finance 0% $0
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +5.2% -4.8% 100% 20% -6.7%
≤30d 8 +3.5% -6.4% 100% 12% -8.2%
≤90d 46 -4.1% -13.2% 87% 2% -9.3%
all 137 -4.8% -13.9% 83% 4% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 4% -11.1%
10% -22.1% 1% -19.6%
15% -29.6% 1% -27.4%
20% -36.5% 1% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$533) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$85 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$634
Realized−$1,151
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses114 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)137 / 142
History coverage159d
Avg bet$449
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 28? No 99¢ 97¢ $400 $393 −$7 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 28? No 89¢ 72¢ $153 $122 −$31 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 28? No 86¢ 90¢ $66 $69 +$3 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 28? No 99¢ 97¢ $49 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 28? Yes 23¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 27? Jun 28 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 27? Jun 28 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 27? Jun 28 $31 +$6 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 27? Jun 28 $137 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 27? Jun 28 $144 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C or below on June 1? Jun 11 $337 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on May 30? May 31 $151 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 30? May 31 $179 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 27? May 28 $199 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on May 8? May 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 28? Apr 29 $134 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 28? Apr 29 $210 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on April Apr 28 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 27? Apr 28 $294 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 26? Apr 27 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 26? Apr 27 $244 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 24? Apr 25 $333 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 22? Apr 22 $95 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 22? Apr 22 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 21? Apr 21 $331 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 21? Apr 21 $331 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 20? Apr 21 $328 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 20? Apr 20 $33 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 20? Apr 20 $160 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 20? Apr 20 $133 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on April 19? Apr 20 $65 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C or higher on April 19? Apr 19 $323 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 19? Apr 19 $321 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 18? Apr 19 $239 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 18? Apr 19 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 17? Apr 18 $307 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 17? Apr 17 $70 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 17? Apr 17 $237 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on April Apr 17 $297 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 16? Apr 17 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on April 16? Apr 17 $183 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 16? Apr 16 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 16? Apr 16 $198 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C or higher on April 15? Apr 16 $298 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 15? Apr 15 $297 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 14? Apr 15 $295 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 13? Apr 14 $289 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 17°C on March 30? Mar 30 $91 −$38 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 16°C on March 30? Mar 30 $335 −$111 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on March 30? Mar 30 $24 −$15 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on March 30? Mar 30 $4 −$2 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 26? Mar 27 $146 +$9 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 26? Mar 26 $226 +$38 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 26? Mar 26 $135 −$42 -31%
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 25 $340 −$26 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 28? BUY No 85¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 87¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 87¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 28? BUY No 87¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 28? BUY No 87¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 28? BUY No 87¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 28? BUY No 87¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 28? BUY No 87¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 28? BUY No 86¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 87¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 87¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $107 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $85 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $99 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 28? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 93¢ $66 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $100 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 27? BUY Yes 98¢ $122 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 27? BUY Yes 98¢ $7 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 27? BUY Yes 98¢ $8 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $20 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $144 20h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 83¢ $8 25h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 83¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 83¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 84¢ $15 25h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $7 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $633.94 · official $633.94 (match) · 839 history records