Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2df…0cad sports 87 markets active 2d ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$207 (-6%) realized −$118 · open −$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%42W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$133
14 days+$63
30 days−$212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$141
other 23% −$124
politics 6% +$1
crypto 5% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -20.7% -28.2% 50% 44% -31.4%
≤30d 83 -13.7% -22.0% 51% 45% -16.2%
≤90d 83 -13.7% -22.0% 51% 45% -16.2%
all 83 -13.7% -22.0% 51% 45% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 45% -16.2%
10% -29.4% 40% -24.2%
15% -36.2% 37% -31.5%
20% -42.5% 34% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$28 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$171
Realized−$118
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses42 / 41
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions4
Markets (closed)83 / 87
History coverage27d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Will Ecuador be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 30¢ 20¢ $62 $41 −$21 (-33%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 56¢ $40 $34 −$6 (-16%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $58 $12 −$46 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $52 −$51 -99%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $50 +$2 +4%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $38 −$37 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $25 +$17 +69%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $35 +$15 +42%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $35 −$14 -40%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $25 +$16 +62%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $26 +$6 +25%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $25 +$33 +131%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $25 −$25 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $15 +$12 +79%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $44 +$7 +15%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $64 −$62 -98%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 11 $31 +$32 +101%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 10 $30 −$30 -98%
Will UD Las Palmas achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 2 Jun 10 $26 −$25 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $102 −$55 -54%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Struff (+1.5) Jun 10 $54 −$53 -98%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $51 +$39 +76%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $10 +$18 +172%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $61 −$60 -98%
Set Handicap: Moutet (-1.5) vs Kyrgios (+1.5) Jun 09 $100 +$3 +3%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $76 −$75 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $25 +$15 +60%
Stuttgart Open: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs James Duckworth Jun 09 $58 −$8 -13%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $25 +$13 +50%
Stuttgart Open: Roman Safiullin vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 09 $25 +$22 +86%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $30 +$23 +76%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 09 $15 +$11 +71%
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron Jun 09 $20 +$13 +66%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $168 +$77 +46%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $66 +$53 +81%
Stuttgart Open: Gauthier Onclin vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 08 $31 −$23 -77%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $25 +$23 +91%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $152 +$98 +64%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $31 −$30 -97%
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $201 +$1 +0%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -97%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Bolelli/Vavassori Jun 05 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $41 −$40 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $46 −$45 -98%
Julian Champagnie Total 3-Pointers (incl. OT): O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $10 +$10 +100%
Set Handicap: Shnaider (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Jun 04 $25 −$25 -98%
Landry Shamet Total 3-Pointers (incl. OT): O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $10 +$10 +100%
Miles McBride Total 3-Pointers (incl. OT): O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $10 +$10 +100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 04 $107 +$169 +158%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $111 −$59 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $52 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $52 2d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 45¢ $19 3d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 7¢ $10 5d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 37¢ $28 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Ben Shelton 99¢ $43 5d
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 20¢ $10 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 58¢ $25 5d
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Adrian Mannarino 78¢ $50 5d
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 54¢ $35 5d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Martin Landaluce 43¢ $14 6d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $50 6d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $60 6d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 59¢ $31 6d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic SELL Nuno Borges 81¢ $41 6d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 38¢ $20 6d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios SELL Sho Shimabukuro 39¢ $32 6d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech SELL Adrian Mannarino 92¢ $59 6d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Sho Shimabukuro 30¢ $26 6d
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Tallon Griekspoor 39¢ $25 6d
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth SELL James Duckworth 52¢ $27 6d
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth BUY James Duckworth 28¢ $15 6d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech BUY Adrian Mannarino 39¢ $25 6d
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi SELL Ugo Humbert 23¢ $50 6d
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Ugo Humbert 10¢ $18 6d
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Ugo Humbert 57¢ $25 6d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 49¢ $25 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $64 6d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 BUY Yes 49¢ $30 6d
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 BUY Yes 49¢ $31 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $170.65 · official $170.65 (match) · 209 history records