Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:26:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F2
0xf2de…18f9
crypto · 1082 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,396 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,394 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$18
Realized−$1,394
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses672 / 409
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1081 / 1082
History coverage126d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 1 History 1081 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$158
14 days−$160
30 days−$412
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 50¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$13 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $66 −$5 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $40 +$22 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $55 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $24 −$8 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 10 $42 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 30 $32 −$25 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 30 $16 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 30 $41 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 30 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 30 $52 −$12 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 30 $16 +$11 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 30 $46 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 30 $21 +$24 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 30 $35 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 29 $21 +$12 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 94% −$1,186
other 3% −$143
sports 3% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $19 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -47.6% -52.6% 28% 25% -33.8%
≤30d 131 -26.9% -33.9% 39% 33% -28.8%
≤90d 616 -10.4% -18.9% 58% 39% -15.4%
all 1081 -9.3% -18.0% 62% 41% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 41% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 24% -24.2%
15% -33.0% 15% -31.6%
20% -39.5% 8% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.79 · official $17.79 (match) · 3500 history records